The Real Estate Sensitivity Survey (ESI) has been published with agency projections for the home buying and renting market in the second quarter of 2023. After a year of uncertainty and the global economic impact of the war in Ukraine, experts show a turnaround by breaking a streak of several quarters of falling real estate confidence indices in both the buy-to-let and rental markets.
The buying and selling market regains its confidence according to idealista's Real Estate Sensitivity Survey. The overall Buying and Selling Index has increased by almost 10 points from its low of 45 in Q1 2023, reaching 54.8 points, which represents the largest increase in confidence since ESI was compiled in 2018. However, it is important to contextualize these results, as the index is still 10 points below that recorded in Q2 2022.
In terms of sales and price indicators, the majority of respondents (65%) believe that prices will remain stable, while 22% expect prices to fall and 12% expect prices to rise. In addition, more than half of the agencies surveyed expect new products to be sold.
Most notable in the survey is the increase in confidence in the number of transactions, as 51% of the real estate agencies expect to sell more homes in the next quarter. Only 21% say they will close fewer transactions and 26% expect to maintain the same level of sales as in the previous quarter.
The overall Rental Index continues for the fourth consecutive quarter to be higher than that of sales and purchases, with a value of 62.7 points, and has regained the positive path after two consecutive quarters of declines, increasing confidence by 3.4 points compared to last quarter. In addition, real estate expectations are somewhat better than a year ago, with a value of 61.6 points in 2Q 2022, the second highest since the beginning of the pandemic.
The rental price indicator has risen again, with 39% of respondents expecting rents in their area to increase, while 48% believe they will remain stable. Only 3% of respondents believe rental housing prices will fall, while 10% do not know or do not answer this important question.
Although prices have driven the index, indicators of new product attraction and new contract closings have remained stable compared to last quarter. Thirty-one percent of real estate agencies expect to rent more homes, while 16% believe it will be fewer, in line with the start of the year. Meanwhile, 27% believe they will capture more apartments to put on the market, compared to 17% who anticipate less new product in the next three months.
The Real Estate Sensitivity Survey (ESI) has been prepared by idealista since the end of 2017 with the participation of real estate experts from all over Spain. The study shows the degree of satisfaction and forecasts of the real estate sector in both the home buying and selling and rental market, based on an index of 100, where the hundred represents the maximum data in positive and greater euphoria, and 0 when all responses are negative and discontent is widespread.
If you are part of a real estate agency and want to participate in the panel of experts who respond to the Real Estate Sensitivity Survey (ESI), please contact your idealista manager to receive the quarterly survey.